WKU Football: Keys to Victory Against Western Michigan
Western Kentucky is traveling to the First Responder in Dallas, Texas Monday, December 30 at 11:30 in the morning on ESPN. The Tops draw Western Michigan, a comparable opponent from the MAC a few years removed from a magical appearance in the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in 2017.
Western Kentucky (8–4, 6–2 C-USA) surprised everyone this year, probably including themselves. Sure, everybody in that stadium expects to win every game, but you still know reality and you want to improve on whatever the program did the year before.
In 2018, Western football won three games, Mike Sanford, Jr., got fired, and Todd Stewart found a semi-controversial hire in Tyson Helton, the offensive coordinator at Tennessee.
Tyson’s season started out rough, losing to Central Arkansas in a game WKU should have absolute won, melting down a multi-score lead against an FCS opponent. However, WKU turned around and beat FIU, a team that ended up being a good football team, then lost to Louisville in Nashville. Then Western would reel off five straight to stand at 6–2 on the season. Western would then drop two against its division rivals, FAU and Marshall. Then in a mind-blowing late-season turnaround, Western would beat Arkansas on the road by 26 and then find a way to beat a game MTSU team on Senior Night.
All told, Western Kentucky looks to triple its win total from last season. So how does WKU beat WMU Monday in Dallas?
Keys to Victory
Handle the Bowl Game Weirdness
This seems arbitrary, but so is all of the crap that goes into a bowl game. First of all, you travel and spend at least a few days in your destination city. The bowl puts you up in a nice hotel and you go and do activities when you’re not practicing. You may do a little community service, go have some fun, go to some famous food place, whatever. Every bowl has things that they make the teams do. That’s a lot of distraction, just in that alone.
Then add in the fact you may or may not be facing a team that you care about beating. For example, Louisiana Tech of C-USA beat Miami 14–0 last week. It was clear Miami was not interested. Is Western Michigan going to be fired up to play in Dallas? Is Western Kentucky? I would assume so, but it’s a legitimate question.
Then you get past that, and what will the crowd be like? Will there be 10,000 people there, or will it be a completely empty stadium? If it’s half and half, that’s a weird game atmosphere, too. If it’s empty, just pretend it’s FIU’s silent 15,000 fans. These players are used to playing in biased venues. If it’s more of a split atmosphere, how does that affect things? These are legitimate factors that could affect the mentality or the outcome of the game by attrition. Who handles these distractions better? Western Michigan or Western Kentucky?
Hold Levante Bellamy Around his Average
Simple. This guy is legit. Slow him down. Over 1400 yards rushing, this is like a Bobby Rainey, Leon Allen, Andrews level of really good running back. 23 touchdowns on the ground is pushing two scores per game. Need we say more? The guy averages 117 yards per game. The Broncos do average over 200 rush yards, so there are other guys that contribute. However, if WKU stops this guy, I really wish WMU good luck in hanging in there. Keep him at bay and the Tops should be in good shape.
Make the Quarterback Beat You
Jon Wassink is a decent college quarterback. He throws for nearly 250 yards per game, but he only completes a tick under 60 percent of his passes. That says he can be a little bit inaccurate, but he’s still competent. He doesn’t have any massive weapons in his receiving corps, but he does have several that contribute between 30 and 60 yards per game. He can also run the football, gaining nearly five yards per carry, including sacks.
If I’m Clayton White, I absolutely load up on the run, focusing on Bellamy and that rushing attack. With someone that could single-handedly win the game for his team, stop him and deal with risking a better day from others. If Jon Wassink is made to really beat WKU, congrats to him if he accomplishes such a thing. I don’t see it happening, but he’s completely capable of doing so with just a little bit of help.
Win the Big Moments
Obviously, winning important moments is important. Duh. What I’m getting at is WMU is great on both sides of the ball on third and fourth down. They do well in the red zone on both sides of the ball despite giving up huge yardage defensively. WKU, a very average offense, should hope to move the ball, but it will be key to extend drives with Ty Storey’s ability to run the quarterback draw, or if the Hilltoppers decide to go for it on fourth down, do they make it? Offensively, WMU is a 50/50 proposition combined on third and fourth down. That’s a huge weapon to have in your arsenal.
In the red zone, the Broncos tend to bend but not break, especially considering how porous they are yardage wise. They’re generally giving up a score, but it’s often three instead of six. With an offense that scores 34 points per game, that’s a winning formula, and hence, they are 7–5 despite giving up nearly 450 yards per game defensively.
Manage the Kicking Game
Both teams struggle in the kicking game. This is not so much kickoffs and punting. I’m specifically getting at field goals and extra points for several reasons: Both teams make under 60 percent of their field goals, and both teams make a decent amount of attempts. WKU attempts two per game, while WMU takes about 1.5 per game. We already talked about how bowl games are weird. A lot of bowl games come down to field goal kicking. It could be argued WKU lost the Little Caesars Bowl because of a kicking decision. WKU’s loss at Marshall came on a last-second kick.
Both teams have different styles and abilities defensively, but the principle is the same. WKU’s defense is just really good, and teams struggle to finish drives if they get one started. WMU’s defense is porous, but it produces a ton of sacks and tackles for loss, so those moments when Ty Storey gets taken down the in the backfield on second or third down, or WKU loses yardage on first down could matter. They affect not only kicks and their distance, but whether the team kicks the ball or goes for it on fourth down.
Overall
Western Kentucky should win this game. Period. Yes, WMU averages more offensively, but they also give up more. WKU’s defense should be able to stop WMU some and keep their offensive attack from exploding. Can WKU hold the Broncos way under 400 yards? That remains to be seen, but I believe WKU has way more avenues to win this game.
From a WMU perspective, they need some things to go their way. They need Bellamy to have a good game. They need to be able to produce through the air somehow. They will have to stop the quarterback draw defensively. They will have to contain Gaej Walker, a 1,100 yard back in his own right. WKU clearly has the better punting game. WKU clearly has the better kickoff game. WKU clearly has the better defense. If Western Kentucky’s defense has one of those games that they just won’t give up 20 points, that’s a WKU win. If WMU scores 30, WKU is 0–3 when allowing 30 points, but WKU can still score in the 30s with Ty Storey under center. They’ve proven they can score if they need to.
With all of that in mind, I see a blowout. I think WKU has more explosive playmakers, plays way better defense, and has a little more talent than WMU. I also think WMU basically reached its potential, while WKU had chances to win 10 or 11 games depending on how the football fell a little bit. WKU is only favored by three, but I see this game going sort of how the Southern Miss game went when WKU dominated a really good offense and just played pretty well offensively against a porous defense. I’ve got Western Kentucky 33-Western Michigan 13.
BEAT WESTERN MICHIGAN!
